Energy Club WA’s April Industry Dinner brought together a panel of industry leaders to examine how global energy markets are shifting under the combined pressures of geopolitics, energy security and transition.
Speakers included Kaushal Ramesh, Vice President and Head of Gas and LNG Macro Solutions at Rystad Energy, John Gibb, Research Director, Upstream Oil and Gas at Wood Mackenzie, Bernadette Cullinane, Managing Director at Alvarez and Marshall, Dr. Daniel Kieley, Chief Economist at the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of WAWA (CCIWA) and Antonio Dimabuyu, Head of Asia Pacific Upstream Research at S&P Global Energy.
Moderated by Izzy Messina, the discussion quickly centred on how to characterise current market conditions, with panellists varyingly describing the global energy landscape as “uncertain,” “resilient,” “exposed” and “expected”. The varying perspectives presented reflected both the immediate volatility facing global markets and the deeper structural changes underway.
A central theme of the discussion was energy security and Australia’s position within global markets. Bernadette Cullinane introduced the issue explaining her choice of the word “exposed”.
“I also think that it's kind of a day of reckoning for us here in Australia, because albeit we are a world leader in LNG and a producer of energy to the world, but we've found ourselves very structurally exposed in terms of our dependence on refined products. I think by now everybody in this room will know that 90% of our petroleum products, including diesel, jet fuel and petrol, is imported. That leaves us structurally very exposed.”
In this context, the discussion moved beyond global forces to local decision-making, particularly the role of policy, approvals and regulation in shaping outcomes.
Daniel Kiely was direct in his assessment, stating that “we need to get out of our own way”, urging a more streamlined and enabling approach to investment. He emphasised that “we need to make sure that approvals are right, that we're not sending the wrong signals to companies that have invested billions of dollars in order to get operational, and we need to continue to support industry”.
He continued, “of course, moving towards more renewables, building the infrastructure that we require to provide cheaper energy to households and smaller businesses needs to happen but it’s around those approvals.”
Antonio Dimabuyu added, “I think if we just look at the overall demand… you would need both. You would need to develop oil and gas and then at the same time progress with renewables or low carbon resources.” Noting that this approach is already reflected in markets like China, where strong investment in renewables is happening alongside continued development of oil and gas to meet demand and support energy security.
The panel returned repeatedly to the idea that Australia risks losing ground, not due to a lack of resources or opportunity, but because of execution.
Kaushal Ramesh shares an outsider’s observation on the issue: “All of the problems you’ve described to me from the outside are the sign of a society that has succeeded. It is prosperous, it is one of the best places on Earth to live and so you create your own problems. It’s too good.”
The comment reinforced the idea that prosperity can come with increased complexity, and that, in some cases, the challenges facing Australia’s energy sector may be as much self-imposed as externally driven.
At the same time, the discussion acknowledged that the opportunity ahead remains significant. Australia’s position in the Asia-Pacific energy landscape continues to present a strategic advantage, but one that must be actively maintained. As highlighted during the panel, the question is not whether the opportunity exists, but “what role would Australia like to play in terms of our regional position?”
Underpinning the discussion was a broader recognition that the global energy system is evolving structurally, not temporarily. John Gibb noted that due to global geopolitical uncertainty, “we just don't know what's going to happen”.
“We're starting to see things happen in the world and happen in the market that are indicating a structural shift,” reinforcing that current challenges are unlikely to resolve quickly,” he said.
In this environment, the ability to respond effectively - through policy, investment settings and execution - will play a decisive role in determining outcomes.
The discussion ultimately reinforced a simple but critical point: while external pressures are driving change, Australia’s competitiveness will depend on how effectively it can respond. As the panel made clear, the opportunity remains but realising it will require a more deliberate effort to remove barriers, enable investment and ensure the system is fit for purpose in a rapidly changing global market.